How a Major War in the Middle East Could Make the World Forget About LGBTQ+ Rights (Including in Ukraine)

There is a certain logic to big-picture politics: One war pushes another out of the news, one crisis cuts off funding for another, and one threat becomes an excuse for those who have long been looking for a reason to forget about human rights. In 2026, this logic operates with frightening precision. The U.S. operation against Iran is consuming Washington’s attention—and Ukraine risks becoming a “forgotten war” (as reported by Politico Europe here).

But behind the geopolitical reports lies another story that is being discussed much more quietly: What happens to LGBTQ+ rights when the world is on fire in several places at once?

Trump, Iran, and the Domino Effect

From the very beginning of his second term, the Trump administration systematically dismantled what it called the “ideological agenda”: federal programs supporting LGBTQ+ people were frozen or eliminated, transgender service members were once again barred from the military, and the very phrase “gender identity” disappeared from government documents. This is no accident—it is a political choice enshrined in executive orders.

At the same time, a military adventure is unfolding in the Middle East. Its scale is still unclear, but European diplomats are already sounding the alarm: the Pentagon’s resources—Patriot PAC-3 missiles, Congress’s attention, and the White House’s political capital—are being diverted there. Ukraine is left with promises that are becoming increasingly vague.

It's important to understand the mechanism here. It's not that someone in Washington decided to sacrifice LGBTQ+ rights for the sake of the Iranian campaign. The point is that resources—whether political, media, or financial—are finite. And when they are allocated amid multiple crises, the most vulnerable groups are those with the least lobbying power and political protection.

EUROPE. The European Shield—How Reliable Is It?

It is generally accepted that Europe is a guarantor of the rights of LGBTQ+ people. That is only partly true. Yes, the European Court of Human Rights is still in operation. Yes, the EU’s anti-discrimination directives are still in place. But the political climate in European capitals is changing—and changing rapidly.

Right-wing and right-wing populist parties strengthened their positions in the European Parliament following the 2024 elections. Orbán’s Hungary continues to systematically restrict the rights of LGBTQ+ people and block pan-European initiatives. In Italy, Meloni is consistently curtailing the rights of same-sex families. In Germany, the AfD has normalized rhetoric that until recently seemed fringe. In the Netherlands, Wilders’ government is redefining the balance between “traditional values” and liberal norms.

Against this backdrop, the new crisis in the Middle East is creating additional pressure. European governments are forced to think about defense, energy security, and refugee flows. The human rights agenda is taking a back seat—not because it has been scrapped, but because there is simply no political energy left for it.

REFUGEES: A New Wave and an Old Problem

A protracted conflict in the Middle East—if it were to break out—would inevitably trigger a new wave of refugees (more on this predicted (the late Vladimir Zhirinovsky). This is not mere speculation: every major war in the region over the past twenty years has triggered migration flows into Europe. And each time, this has put European solidarity—and the rights of the most vulnerable groups of refugees—to the test.

LGBTQ+ refugees are in a particularly difficult situation. Many of them fled precisely because of persecution related to their sexual orientation or gender identity—from Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. In refugee camps, they often face the same hostility all over again. European asylum systems recognize persecution on these grounds in theory—but in practice, it is extremely difficult to prove.

When Europe finds itself overwhelmed—politically and institutionally—it is precisely these people who end up at the very back of the line. Their cases are more complex. Their stories require specialized expertise. Their needs uncomfortable — especially for governments that are already under pressure from nationalist voters demanding that borders be closed.

UKRAINE. LGBTQ+ People in Wartime

Ukraine is a separate and important story. Since February 2022, the country has been in a state of full-scale war. This has created a paradoxical situation for LGBTQ+ Ukrainians.

On the one hand, the war has laid bare an injustice: thousands of gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people are fighting in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine—defending a country that does not recognize their partnerships, does not grant them the right to marry, and does not provide them with equal legal status. Activists have long spoken out about this contradiction: a person can give their life for Ukraine, but cannot officially designate their partner as a family member.

On the other hand, it was the war that provided a new argument in favor of change. According to sociologists, Ukrainian society is showing a gradual shift toward greater tolerance—especially in cities and among young people. Integration into the EU, which remains Kyiv’s strategic course, formally requires bringing legislation into line with European standards, including those related to the protection of LGBTQ+ people.

Now there is another factor to consider: if Washington does indeed shift its focus to the Middle East, the pressure on Ukraine will increase. Kyiv will have to prioritize—military, economic, and political issues. In this hierarchy, the rights of LGBTQ+ people risk falling far from the top of the list.

How Crises Undermine Rights

It is important to call this mechanism by its proper name. We are talking about a structural phenomenon that political scientists sometimes refer to as “narrative displacement.” It operates in several stages.

First: media displacement. The major crisis is consuming journalistic resources and readers’ attention. Newsrooms are cutting back on correspondents covering “peaceful” topics—human rights, climate change, and social inequality. The situation regarding LGBTQ+ rights in a given country is no longer news—not because it has improved, but because the media has stopped reporting on it.

Second: budget crowding out. Governments and international organizations are redirecting funding toward “urgent” priorities—defense, humanitarian aid, and refugee response. NGOs working with LGBTQ+ people are losing their grants. Support programs are being shut down or put on hold.

Third: political cover. Right-wing politicians are gaining new arguments: "Now is not the time for these discussions," "We need to focus on security," "Let's tackle the main problems first". This is rhetoric that would seem cynical in peacetime—but in wartime, it begins to sound like common sense.

Fourth: a legislative rollback. When the public’s attention is diverted, parliaments pass laws that would otherwise spark protests. Hungary enacted its most stringent anti-LGBTQ+ laws precisely during periods of European crisis—when Brussels had other things on its mind.

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WHAT TO DO. Is there a way out?

It would be unfair to end this piece with a call for simple solutions. There aren't any. But there are a few things that are important to understand.

Rights do not exist in a vacuum. They require institutions, funding, political will, and public attention—all at the same time. When one of these conditions is missing, the others begin to unravel.

Ukraine and LGBTQ+ rights are not competing agendas. LGBTQ+ Ukrainians are fighting, dying, and being evacuated just like everyone else. Their rights are part of the same struggle for dignity and the rule of law that Ukraine is waging against Russian aggression.

European civil society plays an indispensable role. It is NGOs, human rights organizations, and independent journalists who keep these issues in the public eye—even when it is convenient for governments to forget about them. Funding these organizations during a crisis is not a luxury, but a necessity.

Finally: Fear is a poor guide in human rights work. Yes, the political climate is deteriorating. Yes, resources are scarcer. Yes, there are more opponents. But it is precisely during such periods that we see who truly believes in human rights as a universal value—and who viewed them merely as a convenient option for peaceful times.

P.S. Three wars taking place simultaneously

There is a war in Ukraine. There is a war in the Middle East. And there is a third war—a silent one, without front lines or battle reports—a war to ensure that the rights of LGBTQ+ people remain part of political reality, rather than a mere platitude from a bygone era.

This third war isn’t lost in a single battle. It’s lost bit by bit—in every budget cut, in every postponed discussion, in every “now is not the time.” And that is precisely why we need to talk about it—especially now, when it’s hardest to do so.

This article is based on publicly available sources, including reports by Politico Europe, data from European NGOs, and analysis by human rights organizations. All opinions expressed are those of the editor-in-chief.