Even in the event of cardinal changes for the better (change of power in Russia/Belarus, the end of the war), one should not expect that those who left will return home. And here's why... I decided to speculate a little on this topic and came to a not very good conclusion.

When power changes, it seems that the doors will open for new opportunities and the long-awaited return of emigrants home will begin. But is it really so? The expectations of those who have left often do not coincide with the reality at home, and changes within countries do not always guarantee a better future for those who decide to return. Even if tomorrow there are changes, it is not a fact that the masses of those who left will be drawn home.

How many of those who left are ready to return?

As long as emigration becomes protracted, the chances of return are increasingly decreasing. The more time has passed since we left, the more difficult it is for many of us to imagine our return. Those who have left in recent years are settling abroad, overcoming cultural barriers, building a new life, and returning to the usual realities at home seems less and less likely.

The younger generation of emigrants (from 20 to 40 years old) easily adapt to new countries, study, build a career and, as experience shows, are less inclined to return. Stable work, the possibility of integration and the accumulated experience of living abroad become important to them, and only a few are likely to think about moving back. At the same time, for families with children, returning again is also a difficult test, because each time they are forced to adapt to a new reality, which is psychologically difficult for children and parents.

Trust in the state is a big problem for return

Many of those who left wonder whether the state will be able to provide basic conditions for their lives. Trust in state institutions remains a key factor. Yes, possible democratic change may inspire a return, but how realistic are the guarantees? The issue of economic instability, political sanctions, and potential commitments such as reparations calls into question the very possibility of public funding for social commitments and security.

The older generation that has left the country realizes that a stable pension and basic support in other countries are a more reliable prospect than promises of change at home. In addition, many will have doubts whether they will be able to compensate for the lost property and provide decent living conditions.

Nowhere to Return: Social and Economic Uncertainty

When a state loses a significant part of the active population, its human capital is noticeably reduced, and emigration and uncertainty in the future only exacerbate the situation. A possible decline in the quality of life, a loss of trust in state institutions, a weak economy, and debt and reparations obligations create conditions in which there is simply no motivation for emigrants to return. Those who remain expect stability, and those who have left understand that in the coming years there may not be such stability.

Even if a democratic government emerges in the country, it will be under the pressure of economic difficulties. It will take a lot of time and resources to adapt the country to the new course and modernize society, and it is unlikely that the state will immediately have the opportunity to provide those who have left with prospects for a comfortable life.

The Future for Post-Change Countries: Those Who Stayed and Left

What happens when the most active and creative part of the population leaves the country? There are those who, for various reasons, could not leave or did not want to, and this becomes a challenge for the future of the country. The return of emigrants could support democratic change, but in their absence, the population remains more conservative, which complicates the reform process.

Returning after emigration is not just a ticket home. It requires confidence that the country will provide protection and stability. In addition, the public finances of Belarus and Russia are unlikely to be able to support those who are accustomed to the standard of living in the West. Ukraine, with all its plans for reconstruction, will also face many financial and social challenges.

Thus, instead of an influx of those who have left, countries can expect continued emigration, which will lead to further degradation and a decrease in the quality of life for all. The country's future leaders will face a dilemma: how to ensure freedom and modernization, while curbing the new flow of those who have left.

The way home can be long

As positive as the changes may seem, for many emigrants, the prospect of returning remains dim. When the state is unable to guarantee basic rights, property protection and social support, those who have left remain in other countries where they have already integrated. And the country itself is left with problems – the lack of a young and active population, which is necessary for economic and cultural growth.

Those hoping for a mass return may face a reality where few will dare to return to their homeland.