What Europe feared has happened – Trump is back became President of the United States. Now a person who does not know how to use self-tanning will determine the global agenda. What awaits the world? And what should Europe expect?
Europe in shock and less secure
Years of poor investment in defense and the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine have left the EU in a position where it needs US support.
The EU relies heavily on the United States on trade and security guarantees, which raises the stakes for a region that faces economic volatility, falling competitiveness, rising right-wing nationalism, and heightened security risks due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Trump does not hide its ambition to make European trade more expensive, which adds to the nervousness in the stock markets, where the region (the EU) may be the loser.
The United States is the largest trading partner of the European Union. Over time, the countries have established huge trade relationships that provide jobs for 16 million people on both sides of the Atlantic and trillions of dollars in trade and investment. And that's not all – half of Europe's production depends on trade, which is now under threat.
Трамп, кандидат от Республиканской партии, планирует ввести дополнительные тарифы в размере 10-20% на трансграничную торговлю, что сделает торговлю дорогой и, возможно, ослабит евро.
That doesn't look like a fantastic outcome, given that Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the region during his first term as president. The new tariffs could hurt economies such as Germany, which is struggling and heavily dependent on exports to the U.S., reducing GDP by 0.23 percent, research shows.
"The prospect of retaliation for more than $350 billion of U.S. exports to Europe means households and businesses will face higher prices, reducing consumer purchasing power and hurting corporate profits in Europe," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.
Brussels is already preparing for how the elections and tough tariff policy may affect the situation.
Still, if Europe manages to get an exemption from Trump's tariff system, it "could increase the relative competitiveness of European companies in the U.S.," Meyers said.
In any case, Meyers expects the trilateral relationship between the U.S., China and Europe to become more complex.
Trump is expected to raise tariffs on China, forcing the Asian superpower to dump more exports to Europe (than it is now), increasing the risk of a trade war erupting, Meyers says.
Trump is likely to return to a course aimed at increasing isolationism and pragmatically redistributing U.S. allied obligations. Europe is likely to face pressure to increase its defense spending and increase its autonomy in security matters. A revision of cooperation with the EU is also likely, which could lead to tougher terms for trade deals.
Uncertainty in business
While tariffs are one way to put "America first," as Trump has argued, the election may be just the beginning of an overall global change in sentiment.
There is concern that President Trump could lead to significant changes in both the economic and geopolitical environment. Europe's lagging competitiveness in technology, innovation and defense has become an "existential challenge," as former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi noted in September.
While Europe is trying to boost its position in the fast-paced and brutal world of innovation, it has also gained a bad reputation for tight control over U.S. tech giants over their online security and antitrust practices.
Trump recently complained that the EU has imposed multiple billions of dollars in fines on Apple, promising to take action if he wins the election. He has also opposed European regulations in the past.
NATO
While Trump has repeatedly spoken out in favor of strengthening NATO, he may also insist on redistributing spending and expect Europe to be more self-reliant in defense management. This could mean less U.S. involvement in European affairs, which would require EU countries to be more consolidated and independent in defense matters.
In my opinion. the main question about Trump's second term is whether there will be adults in the room making policy decisions.
The fact is that Trump has previously threatened to withdraw from NATO. He even said he would "encourage" Russia to do "whatever they please" with NATO if countries don't pay for the alliance, Politico reported earlier this year. If Trump decides to change course in support of Ukraine, European countries will quickly increase defense spending to strengthen national security.
Trump's approach has very strong features of autocracy. And this is one of the risks of Trump 2.0... his rule could inspire other right-wing leaders in Europe, such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán.
Prospects for the war in Ukraine
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the presidential election in the United States. In his congratulatory message posted on the social network X, Zelensky wrote that he recalled a "wonderful meeting" with Trump in September, at which, according to him, they "discussed in detail the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States, the victory plan and ways to stop Russian aggression against Ukraine."
In rhetoric, Trump promised a quick resolution to the conflict, but his approach could mean freezing active aid to Ukraine or even pressuring Kiev to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia without serious guarantees. This may push European countries to independently search for ways to support Ukraine and strengthen their defense capabilities.
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