Trump's Comeback: What Will the World Be Like Under His Second Term?

Context. In the United States, the first Debates Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. According to experts and viewers who watched the debate, the incumbent president suffered a heavy defeat at them. His speech is called "catastrophic", and journalists describe the mood in the Democratic Party as "panic". 

These are the headlines of the international media about the farewell debate between Trump and Biden:

"What the hell?" Democrats in a panic are looking for a replacement for Biden (Politico)

Disaster for Joe Biden (The Atlantic)

«Это было мучительно». [Политический комментатор] Ван Джонс — о выступлении Байдена на дебатах (CNN)

Biden's speech: confused, incoherent — and unnerving for Democrats (The Washington Post)

"It's frightening." Democratic voters are concerned about how difficult the debate was for Biden (The New York Times)

Trump scored a few points in the presidential debate. Biden shocked the nation (Fox News)

"We were." Sleepy Joe freezes, and Trump attacks. Panic (Herald Sun)

Biden's weakest point - his age - was in plain sight at the debate (ABC)

Biden's speech at the debate causes panic among Democrats about his ability to lead the party in the fight against Trump (Associated Press)

Joe Biden is a good man and a good president. He must withdraw from the race (The New York Times)

It's not too late for Biden to leave (Financial Times)

Democrats are discussing replacing Joe Biden. It won't be easy (NBC)

Was the debate the beginning of the end of Joe Biden's presidency? (The New Yorker)

Joe Biden does not intend to withdraw from the presidential race after an unsuccessful debate with Donald Trump, Seth Schuster, a spokesman for the incumbent's campaign, told The Hill.

«Разумеется, он не выходит [из гонки]», — сказал спикер.

Сам Байден, говоря о дебатах, заявил, что «мы справились хорошо». На вопрос журналистов, появились ли у него сомнения по поводу своего выступления после того, как некоторые демократы призвали его выйти из гонки, он ответил: «Нет. Сложно дебатировать со лжецом. The New York Times заметила, что он [Трамп] солгал 26 раз».

When the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced his intention to run for president in 2024, the world political scene made waves again. Questions and speculation about what will happen if Trump returns to the White House are popping up in discussions among politicians, analysts and ordinary citizens around the world. Let's try to imagine what the world could be like under Donald Trump's second presidential term.

Foreign policy:
America First

On the international stage, Trump's return will mean a return to an "America First" policy. This could cause significant changes in U.S. relations with allies and rivals.

Related story

Politico writes that Trump is considering a deal, in which NATO undertakes not to expand eastward, and is negotiating with Putin aboutwhat part of Ukrainian territory Moscow can keep for itself. The publication notes that We are still talking about a project, and not about a ready-made solution. [читать далее]

Politico: Trump's plan for NATO and the conflict in Ukraine, if he wins the election:

• - Trump will announce a demand for EU countries to increase spending on the defense industry;
• - Creation of a new security architecture of the US + EU. EU countries will be required to create new military bases, new airfields and new brigades in Europe;
• — США не будет защищать страны НАТО которые тратят на оборону меньше 2% от ВВП. Трамп в личных беседах заявил, что США не готовы к войне с Китаем, а тем более одновременно защищать ЕС от РФ и воевать с Китаем;
• Trump said that all EU countries except Poland are delirious. No one took the Russian threat seriously before the invasion of Ukraine;
• In 2018, at the NATO summit, Trump told Stoltenberg: "We have to protect you, and you send hundreds of dollars to Russia for energy resources?";
• If Trump were president, he would put pressure on Ukraine to abandon its path to NATO.

War in Ukraine

Donald Trump's return to power in 2024 could significantly affect the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump is known for his ambiguous attitude towards Russia and Vladimir Putin, which raises concerns among the Ukrainian leadership and its Western allies. Under Trump, there may be scenarios in which the United States could reduce or revise its military and economic support for Ukraine, which would weaken its position in the conflict. It could also push Europe to act independently to support Ukraine and strengthen its own security. At the same time, the easing of sanctions pressure on Russia by the United States may allow Moscow to get a respite and additional resources to continue hostilities. As a result, Trump's return to the White House could introduce significant uncertainty and change the dynamics of the conflict, increasing tensions in the region.

NATO and European Allies

Trump has previously criticized NATO and demanded that U.S. allies increase their military spending. In the event of its return, we can expect increased pressure on European countries to increase their contributions to defense. This could lead to tensions with European allies, but also to greater autonomy in matters of security.

Relations with China

One of the main topics in international politics under Trump has been and remains China. The trade war between the US and China, launched during his first term, is likely to resume with renewed vigor. Trump may impose new tariffs and sanctions on Chinese companies, continuing his strategy of economic pressure on Beijing.

Relations with Russia

Relations with Russia may become another hot topic. Trump has previously stated his desire to improve relations with Moscow, although in practice this has been difficult to implement. He may try to find new common ground with Vladimir Putin, which could lead to the easing of some sanctions, but would also draw criticism from opponents inside the United States.

Iran and the Middle East

Policy toward Iran could also change dramatically. Trump, who withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, is likely to continue his policy of harsh pressure on Tehran. This could include increased sanctions and possible military action if Iran continues its nuclear program.

Global Challenges and Opportunities

Trump's return to power will bring both challenges and opportunities on the world stage.

Climate change

Trump is known for his skepticism of climate change and international agreements on the issue. Under his leadership, the U.S. can be expected to withdraw from all climate agreements and stop fulfilling commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This could trigger a wave of criticism from the international community and exacerbate environmental problems.

International Trade

Trump is likely to continue to use tariffs and other trade barriers as a tool to achieve his goals. This could lead to a new round of trade wars, not only with China, but also with other countries that Trump believes are engaging in unfair trade practices. However, if his strategy is successful, it could lead to new, more favorable trade agreements for the United States.

Technology & Cybersecurity

Trump is likely to strengthen cybersecurity measures, especially in the context of Chinese and Russian cyber activity. This could include stricter regulations for tech companies and increased investment in protecting critical infrastructure from cyberattacks.

Possible Consequences for the World

Trump's return to power will undoubtedly bring about significant changes that will affect many aspects of world politics and the economy.

Economic Turbulence

A trade war with China and possible new tariffs could cause economic instability in global markets. Some industries, such as agriculture and manufacturing, may face new challenges due to changes in trade relations.

The Rise of Nationalism and Populism

Trump's policy of protecting national interests may inspire other countries to follow his example. This could lead to the rise of nationalist and populist movements in various parts of the world, which in turn could destabilize the political situation in some regions.

Changes in Global Alliances

If Trump continues to criticize NATO and other international alliances, it could lead to changes in the global security system. European countries may become more self-reliant and form new alliances without U.S. involvement.

Domestic policy:
Back for America

The slogan "Make America Great Again" is likely to become the main slogan of the Trump administration again. In many ways, we can expect a return to a policy aimed at strengthening the national interests of the United States.

Economy and Tax Policy

Trump is known for his commitment to tax cuts for businesses and wealthy Americans. During his first term, a significant tax bill was passed that reduced corporate tax from 35% to 21%. It can be expected that Trump will continue to push for further tax reforms aimed at stimulating economic growth. He is likely to seek to reduce regulations that he believes hinder business.

Immigration Policy

Immigration policy will also be on the agenda. Trump is likely to resume efforts to strengthen the borders, possibly by continuing to build a wall on the border with Mexico. It could also take stricter measures against illegal immigrants and reform the legal immigration system to favor highly skilled workers.

Healthcare

On health care, Trump may again try to repeal or change the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). However, given the previous failures in this direction, he may face the same difficulties as before.

Social Policy and the Supreme Court

Trump is likely to continue appointing conservative judges to federal courts, including the Supreme Court, if the opportunity presents itself. This could have lasting implications for issues such as abortion rights, LGBT rights, and religious freedom.

Donald Trump's return to power in 2024 will be an event with far-reaching consequences for the United States and the world. His policies aimed at protecting national interests and changing international relations could lead to significant changes in the economy, security, and climate policy. Trump remains a flamboyant and controversial figure, and his return to the White House will draw both support and criticism from various groups.

Be that as it may, one thing is certain: the world under Donald Trump's second term will be significantly different from the world under Joe Biden or any other president. It will be a time of change, challenges, and new opportunities that will require adaptation and solutions from both Americans and the global community.